The victory of the eccentric opponent of Muslims Donald Trump in the American presidential race is considered one of the most significant risks that the world may face, according to the findings of the British Economist Intelligence Unit( EIU).This research firm warns that Trump can undermine the global economy and weaken national security and US policy.
In the global risk ranking of 2016, the EIU uses a scale of one to 25 and Trump received a rating of 12, similar to the "growing threat of terrorist attacks by jihadists."
- World Threats Survey of 2016
- 10. Price shock in the oil market
- 9. Military actions of China in the South China Sea
- 8. UK exit from the EU
- 7. Destabilization of the world economy due to the actions of radical Islamists
- 6.Election of Donald Trump as US President
- 5. Greece's exit from the eurozone
- 4. Debt crisis in the euro area
- 3. Debt corporate crisis in emerging markets
- 2. Russia's intervention in Syria and Ukraine
- 1. Slowdown of the Chinese economy
The world's threat rating for 2016
10. The price shock in the
oil market 4 points in the rating was attributed to a possible price shock in the "black gold" market due to lower investment in production.
9. China's military operations in the South China Sea
This threat scored 8 points. While China is building up its military presence on disputed islands, the shelf of which is rich in oil, the White House administration is trying diplomatic ways and mobilizing a military coalition involving Japan and curbing Beijing's aspirations. But until now, the Chinese tiger only frightened the American eagle.
8. UK exit from the EU
This event is in the opinion of EIU analysts unlikely and scored only 8 "threatening" points. The referendum on the UK's presence in the European Union is scheduled for June 23 and if the majority of the British vote "for", then this will be the greatest adventure of the century, according to David Cameron.
7. Destabilization of the world economy due to the actions of radical Islamists
This threat, which received 12 points, refers to the risks of medium probability. However, Russia's successful actions in Syria, as well as the efforts of the coalition led by the United States, can turn it into a category of "unlikely."
6. Election of Donald Trump as US President
EIU does not expect US presidential candidate Trump to become the new head of the White House when he has an opponent like Hillary Clinton, but there is a risk of such an outcome( 12 points).And Trump's chances will increase significantly in the event of a terrorist attack on the US territory or a sudden economic downturn.
5. Greece's exit from the eurozone
This event, the probability of which is high( 15 points), may lead to further collapse of the monetary union, and, as a result, adversely affect the global financial system.
4. Debt crisis in the euro area
The aggravation of the economic problems of the European Union due to the invasion of migrants, the budget deficits of some EU member states and the crisis of confidence increase the chances of a prolonged recession and further division in the EU( 15 points).
3. Corporate Debt Crisis in Emerging Market Markets
A very likely risk( 16 points) due to the culmination of currency rate volatility. Volatility is a litmus test of the securities market or currency, it shows the level of its volatility in a certain period.
2. Russia's intervention in Syria and Ukraine
Where in the first three global security threats, yes, without the Russians. In 2014, after Russia joined the Crimea, the EU countries and the main bulwark of world democracy imposed sanctions against Russia. And the Russian military presence in Syria and participation in the conflict in Ukraine is extremely complicated by the attitude of the West and Moscow, as it was during the Cold War. The probability of a new "cold war" experts EIU is estimated at 16 points.
1. The slowdown of the Chinese economy
The implementation of this economic threat, estimated at 20 points, may entail a further decline in prices for raw materials, in particular metals and oil. And most of all, it could hit sub-Saharan African countries in Latin America and the Middle East. And since many Western retail chains and manufacturers depend on sales in China, the stagnation in the economy of the Celestial Empire can badly affect the economies of the US and the European Union.