The risks that the world economy can undergo in the new 2012 worry not only politicians and financial tycoons, but ordinary people as each of us, one way or another, feels the consequences of instability.
Analysts of German Deutsche Bank made their rating of probable threats to the global economy in 2012 .
10. In the tenth place experts placed rapid economic growth , ahead of forecasts. For this reason, many investors may suffer from unexpected growth in asset prices.
9. The ninth place ranking - growth in the deficit of American pension funds .According to experts, the potential shortage of funds is estimated at trillions of dollars.
8. On the eighth line, the possibility of of losing the status of a stable asset with gold and other previously reliable investment tools.
7. In the seventh place, the probable credit crisis in the raw material markets , which could provoke a price collapse similar to the 2008 scenario.
6. On the sixth line - a steady and fairly rapid reduction European banking institutions lending volumes. According to experts, in two years it is possible to reduce the available amount of financing by 2 trillion dollars.
5. In the fifth place lowered the credit rating of France - the second economy of the Eurozone. This, of course, entails instability in the funding market and will affect the activities of the European Financial Stability Facility( EFSF).
4. On the fourth line - , the economic growth in China slows to 5-6% per year, which will trigger a fall in raw material prices.
3. The third line - the second wave of recession in the US and the likelihood of a downgrade of the credit rating of the United States.
2. In the second position - the possible funding crisis in Italy and Spain , because of which both states will lose access to borrowed funds. The crisis will lead to instability, both in the Euro zone and in the global financial arena.
1. The possible exit of Greece from the Euro area is in the lead. Such a scenario will result in the collapse of the banking system of the country, instability in the financial sector of other peripheral EU countries and losses of holders of Greek government bonds.
In general, experts note the aggravation of the problems of the global economy in 2012.And the probability of yielding in 2012 Greece, Portugal and Iceland from the Eurozone is estimated at 80%.There is a point of view that this year will be the beginning of the disintegration of the European Union, which will entail a slowdown in the growth of the world economy and will affect the stability of the global banking system.
