According to CIAN estimates, by the end of the second quarter, the decline in demand for housing in Moscow may amount to 50%. It is too early to make more accurate forecasts, experts say. The development of the situation will largely depend on the epidemiological situation. The housing market is quite sensitive to such changes as the economic downturn and the increase in unemployment.
“Much will depend on the welfare of buyers, how quickly the entire infrastructure for concluding transactions - opening banks, MFC, notary offices ", - said Alexei Popov from CIAN.
Many experts believe that after the pandemic, a sharp surge in demand for real estate is possible. Since some of the transactions were interrupted due to quarantine, but not canceled, secondly, the so-called deferred demand is formed. With a fall in demand and in a highly competitive environment, banks will fight for mortgage borrowers, and rates will go down.
Some growth in demand in the construction market may appear in the second half of the year, due to the flow of people wishing to participate in preferential mortgage programs.
“There is no need to wait for a quality breakthrough that took place five years ago. There was no unemployment back then, which is highly likely to occur in the second half of 2020. But in the long term, the regulator's policy should mitigate the explosive rise in unemployment, and recovery of the economy and the real estate market will be faster, "- said the head of the analytical center CIAN.
According to Ildar Khusainov, the decision of the Central Bank will help to partially compensate for the drawdown in demand (up to 70% in some regions). “Plus, as a result of lower interest rates on deposits, the influx of those who decide to invest in real estate will increase. It will also support the market and allow it to recover as soon as possible, possibly by the spring of 2021, ”he added.
Source: RBC Real Estate
