According to the results of the first quarter, the real estate market of the northern capital recorded a record drop of the last 10 years - almost 15%. As analysts say, the market situation is developing similar to 2008, when the life of the entire industry was divided into "before" and "after". The recession in travel and tourism has lowered market demand to unprecedented levels.
According to statistics, the drop in demand for housing at the moment is 15% to the usual values. Analysts explain this by the fact that people are waiting and hoping for the ruble to stabilize. In addition, the current “remote” conditions complicate the situation. After all, the MFCs are closed, no transactions are being made. The main occupation of developers is to figure out how much sales will drop and when the market will return to its previous level, if at all.
Andrey Sorochinsky, Chairman of the Board of Directors of the Polis Group Group of Companies, notes that a quick exit after the lifting of the bans will not work: “The market will return to growth no earlier than 2021. According to the optimistic forecast, some recovery in demand is possible already at the end of 2020. " But he considers the Nike-trajectory more likely: a sharp decline (up to 50% of the previous indicators) and a smooth, painfully slow rise.
“If quarantine restrictions are lifted in May, then demand will recover only in November-December. Starting from April, we expect a 50-80% reduction in sales, ”says Maksim Zhabin, deputy general director of Lenrusstroy (he is building a complex in Novy Gorelov). - And we will face a serious challenge: consumer demands are growing, and incomes are falling. But the "harsh economy" in the border areas of the region is difficult to sell: buyers need comfort, decent finishes, services within walking distance, etc. That is, the task is set as follows: to build a residential complex of the “comfort” level at the price of an economy class ”.
Source: The village