At the same time, the losses of the developers' net profit may exceed 200 billion rubles, which actually means that the companies will operate at a loss for a year. Such forecasts are given by the agency "National Credit Ratings", based on the opinion of credit experts.
“The crisis scenario assumes the abolition of quarantine no earlier than September 2020, which will lead to a significant drop in demand - by 25% or more. Probably, an even more noticeable decline in prices by construction companies (by 20-30%) to maintain the highest possible level of sales in these conditions, ”the NKR analysts said.
Experts believe that with the development of a negative scenario, which assumes the end of quarantine measures no earlier mid-2020, the recovery of positive dynamics in the construction market may be postponed by 2 or even 4 years.
The drop in demand is explained by a sharp deterioration in the economic situation in the country, namely, the loss by Russians of a substantial part of their income, including due to a decrease in the so-called "gray" earnings. Experts argue that it will be possible to keep more or less stable the usual sales volumes only if the cost of housing decreases by 10% or more. In this scenario, the revenue of the 20 largest companies in the industry may decrease by 130-170 billion rubles.
A more positive forecast, where the exit from the quarantine period will take place in late April, early May, will allow developers to return to their usual turnover in the market in the third quarter. At the same time, many representatives of the sphere are already preparing a package of discounts and promotional offers that can attract potential buyers. With this forecast, the revenue of the 20 largest developers may decrease by 45-90 billion rubles (up to 10% of the revenue in 2019), analysts say.
However, not every company in the construction industry will be able to get out of the temporary stagnation without losses. They may simply not have enough internal resources. In the absence of tax holidays, some developers will have to tighten their belts to protect themselves from bankruptcy.
Source: TASS
